Gulf

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Questions:

1. What is the main factor behind Khaleejis’ relative moderation (in international relations/ummah/support for global terror/attitude toward Hindutva and Zionism – I don’t care about them allowing more nautch and pubs) in recent years?
2. International pressure from American Republicans
3. International pressure from Israel
4. Material/economic factors (e.g. want to diversify economy from oil, so have to be more agreeable to other states)
5. Competition against Iran and Turkey to be the Caliph of the muslim world
6. Organic ideological change among elites (could just be “are less fanatically islamist now so other factors matter more”)
7. Playing the long game

If multiple factors are relevant, give % breakdown. NOTE: Ideological change induced from a/b/c e.g. “leaders selected more moderate successors as a signal to Americans” count for a/b/c not for d.

1.1) Their moderation in international relations coincides with moderation in domestic social policy (nautch and pubs). Is there any actual causal relationship? E.g. are the people in the countries who are moderate on one, moderate on the other?

1.2) At the start of the Israel-Hamas war after Oct 7, there were stories about “Arab leaders privately encouraging Israel to finish them off”. Was this true or not? If it was true, what does it imply?

1. If 1a was a major factor and is now gone, how does that impact their behavior?

My guess:

1. Gulf-Iran-Turkey competition still holds
2. Peacemaking with Iran is just a Trump fantasy
3. Sunni-tva increasingly important to them (Jolani is their favorite)
4. Diasporoid Muslims are overwhelmingly Sunni so the Liberal Raj doesn’t really love Iran so much except to use them against Israel
5. competitive dynamics (e.g. against Turkey) will now push for MORE Islamization not less. Because there’s no pressure to please American Republicans anymore, just to gain popularity among the global muslim dehāt.

… wouldn’t this mean Gulf states will become much more closely allied with Global Left-Islamism? That they will become the Ummah-backers that the global muslim dehāt (diasporoid & shithole country Ms) always wanted them to be?

(and in particular domestic nautch freedom will cease to be any kind of proxy for moderation)

1. How does this affect the postures of other Middle-Eastern countries?

My guess: between Khaleejis and Turkey, both might try to be “competitively Islamist” (the latter purely cynically, the former ideologically).

If Iran is smart they should try to completely re-align.

1. What is the actual reason (not RW cope and epic owns) why Muslim countries do not care about Xinjiang?
2. Material/economic reasons
3. China not democracy so no hope of convincing them
4. Xinjiang not part of their core darul so less important to them

To what extent (or for how long) can we reproduce these factors in the Indian subcontinent?

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1. How should we update to all this?

My guesses:

1. Israel is now quite literally our most reliable ally – and vice versa. Our fates are inextricably linked with each other’s. There can be no question about this.
2. We will need to act more hardline on foreign relations when it comes to our neighbourhood. Total “us or them” policy with respect to Pakistan to set a precedent.
3. Reducing dependence on oil is the need of the hour. We need electric cars. Apologize to BYD and beg them to come back.
4. Need to fast-track nirṇaya-pilling, otherwise the Overton window will get shifted way in the opposite direction.